Moped Econometrics (OT, of course)

So will the stock market hit zero before year end? My theory -- all the government will do is talk until markets hit zero, then they can buy the whole economy for nothing . . . The capitalist route to communism.

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no groms no blasters /

decidedly so. there is no value in any of the companies that make up the dow jones industrial average.

Moped Econometrics (OT, of course)

Oh, by the way, it looks like the S&P 500 has a good chance of going from 1400 to 700 during the month of November, so why not zero by year-end?

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It will be like Lex Luthor buying california deserts before he initiates the earthquake. be ready to buy some good stock at $1 soon! well, maybe it's good.

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Naaaa.... more like the US will find more excuses to give rich CEOs and bankers more public funds.

THATS the true Capitalists road to "communism"... well corporate communism anyways.

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So true, Andy...I'd call it Fascism, but yeah....so true.

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§ćŗάτçλmªřċ • /

"we have nothing to fear, but fear itself"...

given the state of the present situation, i wouldn't be surprised to hear echoes of that sentiment in Obama's inaugural address.

it also begs the question, who's doing the fearmongering?

~marc

Re: Moped Econometrics (OT, of course)

thats like the hudsucker proxy, same thing, dead on, woah, its happening on a grandoise scale though, so I guess who is going to own us is the question in mind here.

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Oh man...this is about to turn into a flame war. Here's some gas.

"we have nothing to fear, but fear itself"

Have we stopped and thought about this phrase? Does it really make sense? I can think of two instances where it does. One is right as the Depression took hold when people were panicking about the money they thought they had in the banks. The second is right now, if people start panicking about the money they think they have in dollars.

Beyond those two situations (which existed because of a confidence game) it is a meaningless statement. You really can't think of anything to be afraid of other than being afraid? Cancer, nuclear war, a dictatorship, poverty...none of these things are fearful?

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It's happening at two levels. At the corporate level, the people who were supposed to be making prudent decisions and responsibly managing the funds entrusted to them suddenly realized that they had built a house of cards -- much of the economic vigor that inflated the bubble was derived from "leverage" -- those financial devices that seem to me like lending without collateral. Or at least, lending with way less collateral than what might seem wise. So when they saw that their house of cards was starting to fall, they stampeded into panic, selling whatever they could sell to raise cash to cover their exposure to uncollectable debt. So we see markets plunging and credit drying up for car loans, home mortgages, etc.

And at that point, it dumps down onto the rest of us . . . the second level. If you'd been a spendthrift, you'd now be facing your credit card debt, mortgage, second mortgage, home equity loans, etc. and wondering if you're job is going to dry up. Fear. If you'd been a saver, you see that the value of your investments has been crushed. Or you own assets that you can't sell because there are no buyers. Either way, you feel a lot poorer and more exposed to failure. And you stop spending. Fear.

Just thinking about it makes me depressed. I don't know if the constant stream of media talk is an asset or liability, but those folks make more money reporting bad news than they do reporting good news, don't you think?

On a lighter note: As I was fixing dinner, the news was taking the Detroit CEO's to task for flying their corporate jets to Washington. Bet they wish they had driven Fords or Chevys. Or mopeds.

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A Government big enough to give you what you want, is big enough to take all that you have.

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^^^best quote ever by Thomas Jefferson, i think

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The current vacuum of power in washington does not inspire confidence, and looks to be making the situation infinitely worse. at least, if nothing else, this whole collapse will provide a shining example of how terrible governance can take a functional empire and turn it into the backdrop from mad max movie in under a decade.

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And then mopeds rule the post-apocalyptic world!

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Cosmo nPuch Stillstolen /

I was taught from an early age to possess a sale-able skill so that I could market myself without depending on an employer.

Its the best education I've ever gained. After 68 or so jobs in my life, most of them construction related, I learned that there is no such thing as a good job.

When people have the confidence to take care of themselves, the fear evaporates.

Don't ever depend solely on someone else for your income and your future, you will always be disappointed. If you're an employee and not disappointed, then you're just not paying attention.

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Whiskey Tango Foxtrot /

i thought i had "recession proof" skills, as a carpenter i was always able to get work. for the first time i'm bone dry as far as work goes. i do have a line on a high paying , high-end finish work job, just waiting for the phone to ring, but damn, it's NEVER been this bad. ... just sitting here on MA , with CNN on all day, i feel like a total douche.... i'm pretty sure it'll all work out, only now i wish i stayed in college... hey, they're hiring carpenters in baghdad, on the new embassy

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We thrive on negative for positive. We need off to turn on.

My ultimate belief is nothing is greater than it seems.

"Go green, don't have kids"

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it won't go to zero because there will always be speculators(Americans and abroad, i.e. the saudi family owns 35% of citigroup) that have capital that are more than willing to invest in weakening companies during a recession

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kim jensen /

Great comments here people!

"Nothing to fear but fear itself" One of the greatest quotes ever spoken. Meaning we can overcome anything as long as we take action and do not let fear paralyse us.

kbj

Re: Moped Econometrics (OT, of course)

marc please go to this site IMMEDIATELY

http://begthequestion.info/

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thank you, pavel! marc, in this case pavel is right.

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§ćŗάτçλmªřċ • /

"i stand corrected":http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Begging_the_question#Colloquial_usage

if you all feel the need to check whether i've supposedly misconstrued that commonly used phrase as well, knock yourselves out.

looking forward to you giving corrective insight on traditional usage for all my future forum posts, too (or maybe you'd rather i didn't?)... it's definately time well spent.

back to the issue, simply because we're experiencing an extreme economic downturn doesn't necessarily mean we should give in to those who purport it portends to a complete collapse of our system of governance. it's going to be very tough for us, the world, really, to dig ourselves out of this current crapola but in the meantime let's live up to that "home of the brave" anthem instead of "home of the 'fraid". i guess i have an affinity for lincolnesque ideals, but am pragmatic enough to know that folks tend to panic when push comes to shove. i don't mean to be blithely pollyanna, just tend to look for the light instead of curse the darkness, so to speak.

even if all hell does break loose, it could still be considered as some sort of painful cleansing experience. nature has a way of slowly recovering after devastation (if you want to get apocalyptic)... let us all go heroically, eh?

as far as mainstream media, "the _evolution_ will not be televised".

~marc

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John Joedicke /

See that China is wanting to cash in some of the US debt. this could be the thin edge of the wedge that will drive the markets lower. Standing on the side and waiting for bargains. LOL

Re: Moped Econometrics (OT, of course)

"If you

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Just remember that every employee is expendable. The last one to get fired is the boss and that may take some doing. Also, don't concentrate on one profession, you have to be able to adapt and move into other fields at a moments notice. Make yourself re-sellable, even if your new job has nothing to do with the last one.

Oh yeah, and don't expect to get the same pay you were getting before, especially if everyone else is looking for a job, too.

$.02 from someone who's been there.

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no groms no blasters /

OMG HAVE U HEARD OF RON PAUL!??!?!?1/111

Moped Econometrics (OT, of course)

This site is amazing for the range of responses it draws on various discussions!

Read this article: http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/SuperModels/a-credit-crater-too-big-to-fill.aspx

I think this guy has done some math.

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